Headline hit rates flatter; room tells the truth
Calls made right next to the target are right about 80% of the time and carry no edge. Geometry already says the same thing. With real room to the target, the honest rate is lower.
The question
A call on the nearer of two levels is right more often by geometry alone. So how much of a high hit rate is skill, and how much is just being close to the target?
Result
Confident "return to the point of control" calls made outside value are right about 79–82% of the time on the held-back year. Almost all of them fire right next to value, where distance already says the same thing.
| Return calls outside value, held-back year | Right | Edge over distance + time |
|---|---|---|
| Confident calls, all | 79–82% | 0 to +2 pts |
| Confident calls with real room to the target | 66–68% | depends on market; see below |
A later study split every market and session. Calls made very close to the target were two-thirds or more of all return calls. They carried no edge in any market or session, and their reward was about equal to their risk.
What it means
An 80% hit rate can have no edge at all. The real edge is the gap between the hit rate and what distance and the clock already predict at the same moment. That gap only shows up when there is real room to the target. Where it survives is in Where an edge survives.
Limits
- The models estimate which level comes first, not how far price runs. For these calls the typical move in favour was about the same size as the move against.
How these numbers are produced and compared: our method. Every change to this finding is dated in the research log. Historical results only; not a forecast and not a trading system. See the disclaimer.